No surprises in long-range rocket test motivations

After conducting a fourth nuclear weapons test last month,
North Korea launched a long-range rocket on February 7. The North claims the
rocket carries a satellite to advance a peaceful scientific space program.
Others, including the U.S. and South Korea, say it is a cover for a ballistic
missile test. Unconcerned with the diplomatic implications of the rocket
launch, Kim Jong Un continues to defy the international community in order to
maintain his authoritarian power in North Korea through military means. This
represents a continuation of his predecessors’ strategy of creating domestic
unity by provoking international tension. 

Because this latest provocation occurred while the UN and
individual nations were in the midst of conferring over sanctions on North
Korea for the nuclear test, the missile launch also indicates the regime’s
unwillingness to yield to the international community. On the contrary, this
reveals North Korea’s obvious efforts to develop the technology to miniaturize
a nuclear warhead despite international condemnation.

Experts have observed that North Korea is resisting
pressures and policies from the international community designed to prevent
such provocations. The long-range rocket is designed to be used as a
bargaining chip against America, which is pushing for stronger measures against
the Kim regime. By showing off their power to perform a nuclear test and launch
a projectile, North Korea is clearly vying for international recognition that
it is in fact a nuclear power. By the same token, authorities also hope to
shore up political power at home.

In a conversation with the Daily NK, Kyungnam University
Professor Lim Eul Chul said, “More than anything else, this long-range rocket
launch illustrates North Korea’s defiance of America’s hostile policy towards
the regime and is meant to serve as a warning. At this point, North Korea has
demonstrated that not only do they have nuclear capabilities, but they also
have the technology required to use said weapons. It’s a kind of pressure to
get the Americans back to the bargaining table.”

Professor Lim continued, “The fact that Pyongyang pushed
through with the nuclear and rocket test even while the international community
was in the midst of debating sanctions and other measures against them is quite
worrisome. In the road ahead, these capabilities might be used as a bargaining
chip to try to convince South Korea and America to suspend their joint military
drills or to elicit some sort of favorable bilateral agreement with America. That
possibility definitely becomes more prevalent after a test like this.”  

An expert on Korean Peninsula security matters spoke on the
condition of anonymity, stating, “North Korea’s fourth nuclear test last month was
practically an explicit indicator that they would go forward with the missile
launch. The regime is demanding that America consider them to be a nuclear
power while simultaneously gaining the power to protect the regime by evading
U.S. pressure.”

Witnessing the international community struggle to come up
with a unified response to the nuclear test last month, the regime had an
incentive to conduct this missile launch quickly. Officials in Pyongyang are
likely judging that the international community will once again struggle to
come up with clear measures to respond to this series of provocations.

Kim Young Hwan, senior researcher at the Network for North
Korean Democracy and Human Rights, said, “Because North Korea always believed
that it needs to focus on and develop nuclear weapon and projectile missile
technology, there’s no need to make distinctions as to why they’ve chose this
specific time to go ahead with the tests. At this point, the brass in Pyongyang
probably judged that the international community’s resistance and response to a
nuclear test and missile launch would be relatively weak.”

Senior Researcher Kim continued, “This long-range rocket launch is also a good indicator for
North Korea of how patient Beijing will be in the road ahead. Pyongyang proceeded with the launch assuming that China would ultimately endure this degree of provocation. If this trend continues, North Korea will continue to
develop their missile capabilities and use the threat of launches and nuclear
tests in order to solidify their position of power.”

There have also been suggestions that Kim Jong Un is using
the nuclear test-missile launch combination to stimulate loyalty and devotion
ahead of the 7th Party Congress. Kim Jong Un’s defiance of the international
community presents the image of a strong and resilient leader.

After the launch of “Kwangmyongsong 4,” North Korean state
media displayed the handwritten launch order by Kim Jong Un and even showed Kim
Jong Un in attendance at the Dongchang-ri launch site. 

On this aspect of the development, the peninsula security
expert said, “It is extremely important for Kim Jong Un to boast about his
achievements in propaganda before the congress meetings is held. He will
undoubtedly tout the missile launch and use it to his advantage, even boasting
that the missile’s ‘transformation’ into a satellite constitutes ‘space
development.’”