Post unification, North Korea will have to
accomplish the following tasks simultaneously. They’ll need to dismantle the Korean
People’s Army (KPA), officially adopt marketization, install a democracy, align
the polity and the economy, privatize industry, and institute monetary reforms.
But it gets even harder than that because just starting some of these tasks
depends on making progress on others, so the tasks will need to be staggered in
a way as well. The South Korean government will need to use its military to
dismantle the KPA, institute rule of law, prevent violent clashes, destroy the
remnants of communism, and introduce democracy with a market based economy.
The success of long term unity depends on
whether North Korea’s communist establishment can be eradicated and democracy
and capitalism can be installed in its place. This is why it will be essential
to have tolerant political and economic systems that protect the rights and
freedoms of individual North Koreans. Economic growth will no doubt also
accelerate the possibility of this reform. Democratic government must protect
the rights of citizens to vote and join parties as they please. A capitalist
system must protect property rights, enforce contracts, permit market access,
protect freedom of information, and adjudicate fairly.
Experts predict considerable hardship in
introducing democratic and economic reforms to North Korea. Rod Hague and
Martin Harrop argue that newly formed democracies face the following difficulties
when attempting to institute aforementioned reforms.
Even in circumstances where the ruler
announces the intention to democratize, that process will always be incomplete.
The ideas and institutions that the new power inherits from the old regime
serve as impediments to progress in the direction of democracy. The powerful
communist party and military committee interfere with progress in the
legislative branch and prevent changes to the constitution. During such
transitional times, oppressive government organs (such as the military,
intelligence agencies, and the police) show extreme power.
Even if the new
ruler expresses a genuine intention to install a democratic system, the history
of the authoritarian government haunts their efforts like a ghost. That history
makes it incredibly difficult to set up a free government. It makes it harder
than the project that America’s founding fathers pursued when erecting their
government from the ashes of a colonial system. To summarize, it is simply more
strenuous to build a government in a place where history and momentum block
that progress at every turn.
If North Korea hopes to democratize,
economic revival will be a starting base. But there are a few conditions that
need to be satisfied to make this possible. First, the special rights afforded
to the communist party must be abolished. If this does not happen, the chances
of reforms are greatly diminished. Central Asian states, which were independent
from the Soviet Union, failed to block the entrance of the communist party into
politics and the economy. Reforms were therefore delayed. For these states,
this led to the failure of democracy and the dramatic postponement of economic
growth.
After unification, extremely difficult
tasks such as the disbandment of the communist party, the introduction of
democracy and capitalism, and the coordination and unification of South Korean
and North Korean political and economic systems will all come to the fore. As
part of the North’s essential economic reforms, there will be winners and
losers, as inequality and chaos will be difficult to prevent. The losers of
said reforms are liable to protest in opposition.
If dissatisfaction on a large scale can not
be adequately addressed, the economic reforms could fail. The only thing that
could prevent such an eventuality, is the presence and guidance of a strong
democratic leader. This leader will need to have his/her finger on the
heartbeat of the country, diagnosing fair and effective political solutions in
rapid succession in order to lead a disparate populous and push reforms
forward.
However, after the collapse of the North
Korean regime, uncertainty is likely to dominate the political mood. North
Korea has never experienced what it means to use a civil society and
alternative political parties to enforce the law, conduct elections, and
protect the other processes that are so precious to the success of a democracy.
Not only will this inexperience heighten political instability, it will also
impede economic growth and possibly send the North into a crises. However, it
will take a great deal of time from the moment that North Korea adopts
democratic institutions until the time in which they will operate in a
productive and functional manner. In order to accomplish this economic revival
and democratic growth after the fall of the regime, it will definitely be
necessary to have a strong leader. The probability that such a leader will
emerge is difficult to predict.
The possibility is high that political
uncertainty will hinder the process of democratization. That is because it is
uncertain whether a strong leader will emerge to handle these reforms. In order
to reduce the uncertainty inherent in this outcome, the South Korean government
has a responsibility to install democracy and unify the two countries with
great speed and efficacy. This union of North and South is the best possible
provider of the strong leadership that is necessary to make democratic reforms
a reality.
