The North Korean ‘sudden change’ scenario
is defined as follows: for whatever reason, the North Korean regime collapses
and the joint U.S.-ROK forces stage a military intervention to resolve the
crisis caused by the absence of government or anarchy. If a situation does not
call for the intervention of the joint U.S.-ROK forces, it is not considered a
“sudden change” scenario.
For example, if a leader is removed by means of a
coup d’état or assassination and a new government is quickly established, it
means that the “sudden change” scenario is now over. Also a situation in which
there is a civil war between national forces and rebels, and the national
forces suppress the rebels or if the rebels seize control of the regime, and
there is no need for the joint U.S.-ROK forces to interfere, the situation
would not be considered a ‘sudden change’ scenario.
The fall of the North Korean regime can
bring about loss of governmental function, disputes and civil war, humanitarian
crises, hundreds of thousands of refugees, use of Weapons of Mass Destruction [WMD], etc. More importantly,
it can bring conflict and civil war to the entire Korean peninsula. If anarchy
arises from the fall of the North Korean regime, there is a high probability
that the North Korean army will factionalize in accordance to whichever region
they are stationed in.
Each faction would either attempt to seize the central
government or try to survive by battling each other for food and resources. In
a worst-case scenario, this could escalate into a full-scale war. Each faction
would engage in civil war, fighting to win, and if the situation becomes
extreme, use WMD. If a civil war did break out and WMD were used, there would
be a colossal number of military as well as civilian casualties. A civil war
would worsen the ongoing humanitarian crises and would create mass amounts of
refugees.
The humanitarian crises that could arise
from a “sudden change” could be severe. If the North Korean regime collapses,
the services that the government provides would disappear. If food distribution
ceases, there could be a famine even worse than the famine of the mid-90s,
especially because food is already so scarce. Party members, government
officials, security officers, the residents of Pyongyang, and everyone else
that depends on the government to distribute food and other items could
especially suffer. Food could grow even scarcer if there is a civil war. The
North Korean people could suffer from famine, and these conditions could lead
to poor hygiene. This combined with the scarcity of medicine can lead to
disease and suffering.
The collapse of the North Korean regime could bring about
extensive human rights violations to the entire region. The North Korean people
could kill members of what was once the State Security Department [SSD], and soldiers and
members of the SSD that have seized particular parts of North
Korea could kill or abuse rebel forces. Humanitarian crises can also bring a
surge of refugees to the China-North Korea and North Korea-South Korea border
areas.
The collapse of the North Korean regime
could affect South Korea as well. There is a possibility that North Korea could
attack South Korea to distract or draw attention away from any internal
conflict. Or a faction could attack or even use WMD on South Korea for
political reasons. The regime could lose control of nuclear weapons,
biochemical weapons, and WMD, and they could all be used on South Korea,
causing considerable damage.
China could also stage a military
intervention. China could invade under the pretext of keeping North Korean
refugees at bay and to control the use of WMD. China could also invade at the
behest of a faction. China’s military invasion could cause conflict between the
Chinese military and the joint U.S.-ROK forces and they can also oppose any
reunification plan proposed by the South. This would be a very negative
scenario for reunification.
The South Korean government must be ready
for what may come after a ‘sudden change’ scenario. Namely, they must be
prepared for humanitarian disasters, civil war and disarming the North Korean
military, taking control of WMD, mass amounts of refugees, China’s military
intervention, and reunification. Considering the state of international
politics, South Korea’s problem is not that an intervention conflicts with
international law, but that South Korea lacks the volition for intervention and
it lacks military power.
The South Korean government must play a leading role
by stoutly announcing that North Korea is South Korea’s territory as the reason
for military interference. In the reality of international politics, the
U.S.-ROK alliance is the physical basis for a military intervention lead by
South Korea. The intervention should be run in parallel by both the U.S.-ROK
Combined Forces Command and by the UN. If there is a “sudden change”, the
U.S.-ROK Combined Forces Command should immediately stage a military
intervention along with multilateral troops sanctioned by the UN.
The South Korean government must create an
emergency plan and response mechanisms for each ministry. The emergency plan in
case of a “sudden change” scenario should be distributed to each ministry and
everyone should work together with the Office of National Security to create
countermeasures and write a response manual. The emergency plan and
countermeasures should be practiced and adjustments and cooperation between
ministries have to be enforced in the long term. The main point to focus on for
a response to a “sudden change” scenario is military capability. North Korea’s
strategy is to always have a stable military force, so they always at least have
250,000 soldiers ready to be dispatched if needed.
Thus, the South Korean
government does not have the military capability needed to independently stage
a military intervention. This is why a promise from the U.S. government was
secured that should the situation arise, joint U.S.-ROK forces will stage a
military intervention together.
The U.S.-ROK combined forces have prepared
a plan of action called “Operation Plan 5029”. It is composed of six different
scenarios including civil war after a change in the North Korean regime or a
coup d’état, rebel forces taking over nuclear and biochemical weapons and/or
WMD, mass amounts of North Korean defectors, humanitarian aid in case of a
natural disaster, and South Korean hostages in North Korea.
Both the U.S. and
South Korea must fill out the details of Operation Plan 5029 and make sure that
the combined forces will be able to perform the outlined tasks proficiently.
The special U.S.-ROK forces must be prepared to continuously train to invade
enemy territory in case of a ‘sudden change’ scenario and must have plans to
support and place insurgents within North Korea.
Opportunities like the summit in July 2014 between the U.S. and South Korea house opportunities to open a
multilateral dialogue with Japan and China to discuss North Korea’s ‘sudden change’ scenario. The South Korean government should maintain this multilateral
dialogue and must establish a plan for military stability and reunification.
The U.S. and South Korea should feel out Japan and China’s stance on North
Korea through the multilateral dialogue as well.
Moreover, South Korea must work to
gain unanimous agreement from each member country that it will take a leading
role in intervening in North Korea if a ‘sudden change’ arises and persuade
them to agree on reunification on South Korea’s terms. Of course, the U.S. and
South Korea must retain bilateral relations even if a multilateral dialogue is
formed.
