North Korean leader Kim Jong Eun called off his visit to
Russia to attend World War Two anniversary celebrations this month, according
to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on Thursday. The reverse in decision is seen
as a result of a combination of internal and external factors.
Kremlin’s spokesman cited “internal factors” as the reason
for the visit’s cancellation, and although some believe it could simply be a
diplomatic explanation offered from Russia, others speculate actual elements of
instability within the country could have caused the leader to change his mind.
As noted by South Korea’s National Intelligence Service not
long ago, Kim’s leadership has been one of enhanced violence and force recently,
with reports by the spy agency noting that he publicly executed 15 high-level
officials just this year. This tighter grip on the country could in turn
reflect greater instability, making it difficult for Kim to leave the country
for an extended period, analysts believe.
Despite having seen his visit to Russia as a debut on the
international stage and a way to escape isolation, Kim may have withdrawn the
decision with the belief there would be more to lose than gain.
Pyongyang has been trying to increase interaction with
Moscow in multiple fields, not
leaast of which is economic exchanges. Even at the risk of going against
diplomatic norms, the North reversed its decision, leading experts to believe Kim
thought containing political risks would outweigh potential economic benefits.
Director Jeon Hyeon Jun from the Northeast Asia Peace and
Cooperation Institute
Kim Jong Eun would have requested summit talks with Russian
President Vladimir Putin, and the response was likely that it would be difficult
in the face of sensitive issues, namely Pyongyang’s nuclear program and its
troublesome human rights track record. This would have made Kim realize that
economic aid on a massive scale would be impossible and no longer make the trip
an attractive option.
The leader will continue to pursue holding one-on-one talks
with Putin or eye summit talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping during Beijing’s
Victory Day celebration, but that will not be easy either. What Kim wants in
return for a first overseas trip as the leader of the North would be a
guarantee of economic aid. But given the current global climate, neither Putin
nor Xi would be able to help Pyongyang in such a fashion.
Senior Researcher Cho Bong Hyun at IBK Economic Research
Institute
Kim Jong Eun could have been concerned that without
experience on the global stage, not only would be ill-equipped to carry himself
well in a multilateral setting, he would fail to steer meetings with other
leaders in his desired direction. Moreover, if he did go to Russia, he would
have to hold summit talks with President Putin and other bilateral
meetings with heads of states. Without this, it could make the North Korean
leader look merely like any other leader at the venue instead of being at the center
of attention.
A trip for Kim would mean he would have to bring back
promises for various economic aid packages when he returns, but he likely lacks
the confidence to do so. This would have undermined the significance of the Russia
trip greatly. Add to this a multitude of other variables—including his personal
safety—and the conclusion that he is simply not ready seems most likely.
Researcher Oh Kyung Seob at Sejong Institute
The biggest reason behind his withdrawal would have been
personal security and overheated competition among state agencies to guarantee
his protection. With Moscow making the invitation public, it would have added a
lot of burden on Kim’s part. In the past, if you think of the surprise trips
Kim Jong Il made to China, it is likely there were a lot of questions raised
about the leader’s personal safety. It’s possible that agencies like Kim’s
escort force or the State Security Department displayed overheated competition
to emphasize their loyalty and utmost concern for the safety of the “highest
dignity” [Kim Jong Eun] and that’s what overturned plans for his trip.
