Two incidents between South and North Korea
this past Saturday and Sunday, one which resulted in the exchange of fire, near
the Military Demarcation Line [MDL] may have been a calculated provocation
initiated by Pyongyang’s General Bureau of
Reconnaissance[GBR], according to a defector formerly affiliated with the body.
On Sunday, when roughly ten North Korean
soldiers approached the MDL in the area of Paju, Gyeonggi Province [just north
of Seoul], South Koreans soldiers issued a verbal warning before firing warning
shots. Seoul’s Joint Chiefs of Staff confirmed the two
sides exchanged fire for roughly ten minutes and that two casings believed to
be from the North were recovered.
The previous day, North Korean soldiers had
also approached the MDL between 8:30a.m. and 4p.m. in the eastern area of
Cheolwon County in Gangwon Province, which also resulted in warning messages
and shots from the South. The North Korean soldiers retreated without any
particular reaction to the warning shots, which precluded an exchange of fire.
Just this month, Pyongyang has carried out
four provocations. Aside from the MDL incidents, on the 7th, there was a
skirmish in the West Sea near the Northern Limit Line [the de facto maritime
border between the two Koreas], and on the 10th, the two Koreas exchanged fire
after the North shot down devices carrying anti-regime propaganda leaflets.
In the recent week, the two sides had seen
signs of warming relations with an unexpected visit from the North’s three most powerful officials, including Hwang Pyong So, the vice
chairman of the North’s Korean People’s Army. However, not long after their return to Pyongyang, a series
of provocations have continued near border areas, ratcheting up tensions in the
region. Many see this as a move to claim the upper hand in the upcoming
high-level talks.
However, a North Korean defector who used
to be a member of the General Bureau of Reconnaissance believes this the most
recent incidents are not in relation to the high-level talks, but a move from
the GBR to assess infiltration routes, while examining the readiness of
South Korean troops.
The defector, who goes by the surname Cho,
told the Daily NK, “Even for soldiers from
the ‘Mingyeong Unit,’ who are
on the frontline, it’s almost impossible to approach
the truce line on the southern side.” Cho explained, “Getting that close to the frontline is usually only possible for
special agents from the GBR which falls under the Ministry of People’s
Armed Forces.”
“If North Korea had sent those soldiers
with the goal of better positioning itself in the upcoming talks, it would have
most definitely fired back at the South Korean troops,”
the defector asserted. “But on the 18th, they pulled back
with no reaction, and on the next day, casings may have been found, but other
than that, they didn’t show much of a counter-response.
This is why they could have been studying infiltration routes and gauging the
response of South Korean forces.”
Soldiers from Mingyeong Unit under the 2nd
Corps,in charge of patrolling and guarding areas adjacent to the MDL,
can only work in restricted areas for tasks such as collecting firewood, and
are strictly prohibited from approaching further south, according to Cho.
However, soldiers from the GBR venture all the way down to the frontline, with
landmine removal teams manning the front.
“Approaching the fence all the way down
near the southern side is a sensitive issue between the two Koreas, so it
always requires approval from the General Staff,” Cho
said. “This should not be seen as an independent move
initiated by the commanding officer of the unit.”
“In 2009, the Panmunjom representatives
were transferred to the GBR,” the defector said. “Out of the ten
soldiers, six or seven are likely combat soldiers from the GBR, and the rest
are probably landmine removal soldiers.”
He added, “The
Bureau concludes its annual training by mid-October, and then it puts together
two strategic units for land and sea infiltration to assess their final combat
capabilities,” saying, “now is
that precise period.”
